Fears Trump will axe South Africa from Agoa after USAID funding cull

Heated exchanges between South Africa and the United States this week are an eruption of tensions over several policy issues that have come into focus under President Donald Trump's administration, analysts said.

And more turbulence is in store, with South African-born billionaire Elon Musk a key ally of the new US president, they said.

Even if the recent outburst seemed surprising, "the trigger goes some time back," said Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the Efficient Group consultancy firm.

Senators in the previous US administration "were already questioning their relationship with South Africa", he said.

For instance, in 2023 a bipartisan group of lawmakers called for former president Joe Biden to punish South Africa for not condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"All of a sudden, those voices that were minority are now more important," said Roodt.

Trump started the latest spat by accusing South Africa of "confiscating" land and treating "certain classes" of people badly, a likely reference to an expropriation act criticised by white farmers.

The government rejected the claim as misinformed.

Musk followed by charging that President Cyril Ramaphosa had "openly racist ownership laws".

Secretary of State Marco Rubio then weighed in, saying he would not attend a G20 foreign ministers' meeting in Johannesburg this month because South Africa -- this year's president of the forum of top economies -- had an "anti-American agenda".

America's biggest trading partner in Africa has also come under fire from Washington for leading a case at the International Court of Justice, accusing Israel of "genocidal" acts in its Gaza offensive, an accusation Israel has denied.

Pretoria has also shown its loyalty to Beijing, over Washington's preference for Taipei, by issuing a March deadline for Taiwan's de facto embassy to move out of the capital.

Trump has meanwhile threatened to place 100-percent tariffs on BRICS nations, of which South Africa is one, to dissuade them from replacing the US dollar with a rival currency.

Elon factor

"The Elon factor is huge," political scientist Sandile Swana told AFP of the world's richest man, who left South Africa in the late 1980s when he was aged 17 and is now in Trump's government.

"Certain high-profile white South Africans are whispering things in the ears of Trump which are not verified," he said.

"White supremacist groups are gaining state power and using it to impose conservative right-wing views," he said, and South Africa is "an easy target".

Musk's barb about "racist ownership laws" may have been a reference to a black empowerment policy that has reportedly been behind delays in the licensing of his Starlink satellite internet service in South Africa.

Ramaphosa has not been shy about courting Musk's wealth as he seeks investment for the country. But "we will not be bullied," he said in an address to the nation on Thursday.

Despite the brave face, commentators say South Africa lacks the leverage to stand up to the United States.

"Trump has the US economy, technology, a number of billionaires, huge political movements behind him," Roodt said. 

"The big loser is going to be South Africa."

Age of darkness

After Trump last month abruptly suspended US foreign aid funding -- which made up about 17 percent of the costs of South Africa HIV/AIDS treatment programmes -- there are renewed fears for the fate of the AGOA deal that gives some African products duty-free access to the US market.

Enacted in 2000, the deal -- of which South Africa is the largest beneficiary -- is due for renewal this year.

"If the Trump administration could shut down USAID in the way in which they have done, affecting the lives of millions, I don't think the AGOA has got a big chance to survive," Neil Diamond, president of the South African Chamber of Commerce in the United States, told AFP.

"It would require a massive intervention from the African leaders to change Trump's view on this."

The absence of the United States, the world's biggest economy, at the G20 summit at the end of the year would be a blow for South Africa's hosting of the key event.

Despite the escalation, the whole saga could also just fade away, political scientist Susan Booysen said.

"If it was pure provocation on the side of Trump, like he deliberately does, it seems it can end any time because he can just say, 'Oh, forget about what I said,'" she told AFP.

But Swana was less optimistic. "Trump is taking us back into the age of darkness," he said.