US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has declared Ebrahim Rasool, South Africa’s ambassador to the United States, as persona non grata.

Political analyst Dr. Sandile Swana described this decision as "swift and predictable," adding that South Africa should prepare for potentially worse repercussions in the near future.

The expulsion comes against a backdrop of escalating tensions between South Africa and the United States.

In November 2023, South Africa successfully petitioned the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to review what international organisations have described as “genocide” in Palestine, concluding that Israel was engaged in actions that are classified as violations of international law.

This move was met with disapproval in Washington, where bipartisan proposals were made in early 2024 to reassess South Africa's participation in international forums due to its stance against Israel.

Swana noted that the US response was swift and predictable, citing that the ANC's actions at the ICJ laid the groundwork for what followed.

“South Africa's growing alignment with nations like Ukraine, including its strengthening ties with the European Union, Russia and China have not gone unnoticed,” he explained.

He emphasised that these moves have placed the country at odds with US interests, particularly as the US seeks to reorder international relations.

On the implications this has for South Africa’s foreign policy, he argued that the expulsion of Rasool signals a significant shift in diplomatic relations, adding that the ANC must accept accountability for its foreign policy missteps.

“The ANC's prioritisation of its party interests over national well-being has led to this diplomatic fallout,” warning that South Africa's current trajectory could alienate it from key international allies, especially as it engages with nations like China and Russia, which complicates its relationship with the US.

Moreover, he asserted that the political landscape in the US is characterised by a growing divide, with public opinion largely influenced by right-wing ideologies that support tougher stances against nations perceived as adversaries.

“Trump’s administration thrives on these tensions, and Rasool’s expulsion is likely the first of many actions aimed at targeting specific individuals within South Africa’s diplomatic corps,” Swana predicts.

He felt that while immediate economic repercussions may not be evident, the long-term implications for American businesses operating in South Africa could be significant.

“The days of free trade agreements without conditions are over, any future negotiations will likely require South Africa to make concessions regarding its mineral resources, further complicating trade dynamics.

Swana warned that as the growing right-wing influence forcibly cements its public sentiment, the ANC must navigate this complex terrain carefully, balancing internal pressures with the need for coherent international relations.

Looking ahead, Swana emphasised that South Africa must reassess its diplomatic strategies, adding that the ongoing processes at the ICJ and the International Criminal Court may shape future interactions with the US.

However, he cautioned that the ANC must prepare for a more transactional relationship with the US, particularly under a Trump administration that is likely to demand significant concessions.

Meanwhile, the South African government said the US decision to expel South Africa's ambassador was "regrettable", the office of the president said on Saturday.

"The Presidency has noted the regrettable expulsion of South Africa’s Ambassador to the United States of America, Mr. Ebrahim Rasool," it said in a statement after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the diplomat was no longer welcome because he was "a race-baiting politician" who hates the country and its president.

thabo.makwakwa@inl.co.za

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