Minister: Kgosientsho Ramokgopa’s bold claim. Picture: GCIS
An end to load shedding remains unlikely, an energy expert says, because Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is still not enough to provide uninterrupted power for the country.
This after Electricity Minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, on Wednesday bragged that the tide has turned for South Africa’ energy crisis and that the end of load shedding was now in sight.
However, Professor David Walwyn of the UP Graduate School of Technology Management at the University of Pretoria, says while news of Eskom's progress is encouraging, Ramokgopa is “spinning”.
"The Minister of Electricity has admirable optimism but he is also a master of spin.
“The attainment of an EAF of 65.5% for one day is very different to maintaining this level for at least a month or a year, which is what we need.
"It is encouraging to hear that Eskom is making progress," Walwyn says.
"Improvements to the operation of Eskom's coal fleet, together with reduced demand as a result of the installation of solar panels will definitely decrease the probability of load shedding, but whether it signifies that the end of load shedding is within touching distance, is very unlikely.
"We just need a week of cloud cover across the country, no wind and a couple of unplanned outages to be back in trouble."
Ramokgopa said on social media that Eskom’s EAF of 65.5%, last attained in 2021, confirms the success of aggressive maintenance-led recovery strategy, despite its inherent risks.
“We have indeed turned the corner, the ending of load shedding is within touching distance.
“This milestone validates the viability of the Eskom fleet of generation units and signifies the most efficient path to ending load shedding,” Ramokgopa said.
He added that the State had incentivised rooftop solar rollout, and this is on-track to reach an installed capacity of 6000MW by the end of 2024.
Eskom has forecast Stage 2 load shedding for winter.
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